北美自由贸易区经济周期协动性的实证研究

自《北关自由贸易协议》签订并实施以来,美国、加拿大、墨西哥三国间的经贸联系日益密切。三国间经贸投资联系的加强必然会作用于三国宏观经济波动的传导,并改变北美自由贸易区内美、加、墨三国经济周期协同的特点。本文首先探讨了《北美自由贸易协议》对美国、加拿大、墨西哥三国间贸易与投资的积极效应,然后对三国在北美自由贸易区成立前后的经济周期协动性变化的特征事实进行了分析,最后考察并检验了《北美自由贸易协议》对三国间经济周期协动性的影响。     

固定汇率体系下的货币政策:对未来中国货币政策的探讨

Using a macro dynamic model that is specified for the current Chinese economy, we investigate the monetary policy in China under the assumption that the capital market was “open” under WTO frame-work while the exchange rate was fixed. Our purpose here is to find whether it is possible for China in this case to keep the effective monetary policy for stabilizing the domestic economy. For this, we suggest some institutional arrangements (or restrictions). Given these institutional restrictions, we find that not only the monetary policy can still be effective but also the fixed exchange regime will strengthen the macroeconomic stability shared by both the domestic economy and the economy of its trade partners. The dynamic analysis of the model further shows that the under-valued RMB is necessary for the target exchange rate to be sustainable. Finally, due to the import pattern of the current Chinese economy, RMB appreciation will not help to resolve the trade deficit problem in the Western economy with respect to China.      

宏观经济因素、信用风险与压力测试

通过文献综述发现宏观经济因素波动是导致银行产生信用风险的重要原因之一。美国金融危机以来,我国经济面临的最主要问题是进出口大幅下降,我国商业银行在这样的宏观经济发生重大变动的情况下面临怎样的信用风险?本文在评介现有的宏观压力测试方法的基础上,提出并用实证证明利用投入产出模型建立宏观压力测试方法可以对出口大幅下降展开有效的行业内生影响分析并分解到每一个企业身上,从而为银行分析贷款不良率,管控信用风险提供直接的参考依据。     

汇率制度是否影响失业率?——基于全球经济体的面板数据之经验分析

论文使用172个经济体在1991-2010年间的面板数据,研究了汇率制度对于失业率的影响。研究发现,在其他条件保持不变时,相对于中间汇率制而言,在发达经济体中,浮动汇率制会降低失业率,而钉住汇率制则会提高失业率;在新兴市场经济体中,浮动汇率制会提高失业率,而钉住汇率制则会降低失业率;在不包括新兴市场外的发展中经济体中,中间汇率制下的失业率最低,而钉住汇率制下的失业率最高。     

An index of macroeconomic performance

This article develops a composite index of macroeconomic performance (IMP) and uses this index to ask: did the macroeconomic performance of the US economy improve during the 1990s relative to its own past performance; and has US macroeconomic performance been superior to that of other advanced capitalist economies during the post‐war period as a whole? It is demonstrated that by studying the behaviour of an IMP, it is possible to draw conclusions about these comparative macroeconomic performance puzzles that are robust with respect to changes between multiple index weighting schemes.     

Macroeconomic Policy Interaction under EMU: A Dynamic Game Approach

In this article, we study macroeconomic stabilization in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) using a dynamic game approach. With the aid of a stylized macroeconomic model, this article analyzes the transmission and interaction of national fiscal policies and monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) in the EMU. A special focus is on the effects of labor market institutions in the participating countries and of the introduction of fiscal stringency criteria like those imposed in the Stability and Growth Pact.     

当前宏观经济形势与2004年的比较与思考

当前,国内外经济形势错综复杂。文章通过对近期和2004年中国宏观经济形势的比较,分析其中的异同,以厘清未来走势,并为宏观调控提供借鉴。两个时期部有一些相同点：中国经济从低谷走出,乐观情绪升温,房价骤涨,通胀开始抬头,中国跟随世界进人新一轮加息周期,人民币升值压力不断加大。两者不同点是：当前货币增长速度远远快于2004年。贸易顺差更大,信贷和财政状况逊色。未来,预计CPI回升势头更快,央行面临回收流动性的压力更大,贸易摩擦加剧,中美息差可能进一步扩大,人民币的升值压力将加大。     

Quantitative easing and median income: a state-level analysis

Due to the Great Recession, the Federal Reserve engaged in unconventional monetary policy (QE) to fight the effects of the economic downturn. Literature asserts that QE did have impacts on economic growth and helped alleviate the effects of the recession. Recently, critics have asserted that the benefits of QE may not have been equally distributed across households. In this paper, we build a state-level dataset to investigate the dynamics of QE measures and median income across the U.S states. The findings indicate that, for the period 2008 to 2014, there is statistical evidence that increases in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet correspond with higher nominal median income. However, once we adjust for inflation, the results become statistically insignificant and the impact of QE on median income becomes almost zero.     

Homo Oeconomicus Returns: Neoliberalism,Socio-Political Uncertainty and Economic Policy

The aim of this paper is to discuss how neoliberal policy is changing the way people conceive of the economy and of society. After a brief outline of the main features of neoliberal policies, it argues that neoliberalism does not consist in a mere set of wrong economic theories or in the plain reflection of vested interests. It is a full-fledged view of how society should be organized. The paper then argues that these policies and the ideology that backs them up determine major institutional changes which affect economic, social and polity-related variables but also the general understanding that peo-ple have of the economy and of society. More specifically, it enhances uncertainty about one’s future and favors a non-solidaristic view of social relations. These changes tend to prejudge the effectiveness of employment policies and to reinforce the neolib-eral consensus. The conclusion is that it is not possible to conceive of an appropriate macroeconomic policy unless institutional changes are taken into account that trans-cend macroeconomics as such and re-establish the social underpinnings for that policy. These include changes in how the economy is coordinated but also changes in the bar-gaining power of workers and citizens relative to business.     

The economics of the Syrian refugee crisis in neighbouring countries: The case of Lebanon

In this article, we investigate the effects of a massive displacement of workers from a war‐torn economy on the economy of a neighbouring country. Applying a general equilibrium approach to the Lebanese economy, we explore effects from various components of the crisis on the labour market, the production apparatus and macroeconomic indicators. Along with previous literature, our findings suggest limited or no adverse effects on high‐skilled native workers, but a negative impact on the most vulnerable Lebanese workers. When aid takes the form of investment subsidies, significantly better growth and labour market prospects arise, recalling the necessity of complementing humanitarian aid with development aid to succeed in achieving long‐term objectives. This may however not be politically viable in a context where refugees are considered as temporary.